Insights Into Politics And Development In Nigeria
Over the past week, a number of papers have been published that will probably be helpful to Nigeria watchers.The center for Global Development’s Fighting the Resource Curse via Cash Transfers initiative has published a bit by Aaron Sayne and Alexandra Gillies (pdf) that evaluates the potential of direct money transfers in the Niger Delta.
The fundamental idea of the money transfer system is that money, if given directly to those that need it, shall be extra correctly spent than by alternative recipients, similar to government or development organizations. Sayne and Gillies discover that whereas such a system might actually improve the lot of its recipients, direct cash transfers are unlikely to end in transformative financial development as a result of of factors corresponding to lack of infrastructure and insecurity.
Sayne and Gillies make the purpose that a system of direct payments to individuals would additionally promote the present, unhealthy focus on the best way to entry state largesse that could set off competitors for payments resulting in insecurity. (A further benefit of this paper is their clear break down of the Nigerian government’s present income sharing model.)
The Fund for Peace, creator of the acclaimed Failed States Index, has published its latest installment of incident studies compiled by its UNLock Nigeria early warning network, from April -September 2011. (This consists of experiences from the contentious 2011 elections.) The FFP methodology is expansive, capturing a variety of insecurity.
What is unique is that this information just isn’t compiled from press experiences, however from a community of skilled civil society organizations on the bottom. While their reporting is country broad, it’s concentrated within the Niger Delta, much of which is off-limits to Westerners, and the place the extent of insecurity is considerably underreported by the Nigerian press.
Based on the authors’ analysis of incidents, they discover “With a major youth bulge–over 40% of the inhabitants is below the age of 15—a historical past of economic and social imbalance between the North and South, religious and ethnic tensions, and a fragile system of political energy sharing, Nigeria faces important challenges over the subsequent few years.” A good evaluation.
And finally, Elizabeth Donnelly at Chatham House has revealed “Tangible Tensions” (pdf), a broad overview of the challenges Nigeria is facing. The key takeaway, I think, is the variations between the pessimism of those who deal with security issues (Boko Haram, ethnic battle in Plateau, low-degree violence in the Delta, crime, and so on.) and the optimism of the enterprise community, especially in Lagos.